Sunday, March 15, 2009

Growth in Tucson

"The bottom line is, as long as Arizona is a desirable place to live and do business, we're going to be subject to the swings in this investment cycle and construction cycle," Vest said.

I'm going to start with this: Is it just me, or are they trying to say that by being a desirable place to do business, that this is a bad thing? Can the Star be that biased? I mean, really that biased? Swings are a NORMAL cyclical part of a viable healthy business environment. The only way to not be cyclical is to be dictated through government intervention - socialism. So what exactly is the paper trying to say (without saying it)? This paragraph's placement indicates an emphasis on the swings in the cycles as being the culprit, and needs to be controlled or modified (since all these construction workers laid off now have to find other jobs). Sounds a little bit like socialism to me... in other words - let's stabilize the cycles, which then makes Arizona a continually productive place to do business. Sorry, it does not work that way!

Second problem with this article, the list of jobs that remain stable during recessions, i.e. good stable jobs. Let's take a look at them:
  • Defense industry: Pres. Obama has already stated that he is going to reduce expenditures within the defense industry. The only reason it has been a 'stable industry' is because the US has maintained defense spending at a high percentage of GDP. Also, thanks to the Omnibus spendulus bill, what little money we have, is going to industries building weapons systems that the Air Force (F-22 raptor) don't want or need any more... not to mention the reduction in defense projects, which are based on new advancing technology. 20th century weapons for a 20th centruy industry, stuck with 20th century workers.
  • Hospitality/Tourism (management): Ok, so, in order to have quilified people in high-end positions, we have to pay them well, correct? Wait, we're going to tax them to oblivion...Why would they want to stay here to work, just to lose half of what they earn? There are a lot of jobs overseas, and what we will see is an exodus of high-level management to countries more accommodating to the wealthy. Plus, you have to have tourism, to have tourists, to have tourism-based-income. We need more than just one month of spring training, one week of golf, and one week of gem show to keep the hotels in the black all year...and Tucson has not done much else to keep that steady stream of tourists coming. The best thing we have going, is that we are 8 hours away from LA, and 6 hours from San Diego - last good hotels on I-10 until El Paso (sorry New Mexico, but it's true).
  • Border Related: Yeah! I am all for spending money on the border. But, we can't build the fence because the jaguars can't cross...and we can't equip our BP agents better, cause we don't want the illegals feeling like we have an 'army' coming after them...although, we could use more beds and detention facilities to process illegals...
  • Health and Biotech: The reason the health trade is so good in Tucson is the influx of elderly every winter. Also, it's government backed. Medicare/medicaid keep a steady stream of people coming in the door...whether they need care or not. (and note, I did not say profitable, it's only profitable because of all the self-pays and insurance-covered patients) Yes, health care is a good industry, and the boomer generation will drive that need, just like the boomer generation drove the housing market and the automobile market. But when we nationalize health care to take care of the boomers, profitability will go out the window, and we'll be right back to losing qualified workers to better paying, less stressful jobs. Oh, not to mention the rationing of health care in the process.
  • Construction Trades (green): note, they had to mention on the green side. why? CAUSE OBAMA IS GOING TO FORCE EVERYONE TO BUILD GREEN!!!!!!!!!! Yes, cost upon cost will be added to every project to have some specialized this-or-that come in to a new building and add some doodad, gizmo, or widget guaranteed to give us one more year before the earth melts or cools. Good luck buying a cheap house ten years from now...
  • Transportation: Well, there will need to be a lot of bus drivers for sure, since no one will be able to afford their own car, it will either have too many 'carbon-taxes' on it if it is old, or have costly technologically-controlled environmentally-unsound batteries on it, or there will be no bank out there willing or able to finance you to buy something. Rail? Ok, 100 new operators to run the monorails from Disney to Vegas to Six Flags-Texas to Disney World to Broadway.... every time I think of this the Simpson's episode about the Monorail comes to mind....
  • Information Technology: well duh, this is going to be, and will be a good industry, but good luck, since it changes every 5 to 7 years, and requires constant schooling to keep current, not just one time at a 3 year college...

But like the story says, the growth cycle will return (duh, it's cyclical, ain't it?)... and patience will do more for us that any attempt at manipulation.

 ***Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you.***
Peter Schmugge

No comments:

Post a Comment